Observations on 2010 water outlook (March 4)
By Lance Johnson
For The Madera Tribune
The federal Bureau of Reclamation’s long-awaited, and delayed, initial 2010 water allocation was finally announced Feb. 26. For CVP Friant Unit contractors like MID, the initial allocation of 100 percent Class 1 and 0.0 percent Class 2 (overall about 72 percent of historic average supply) was welcome news, as it could have been worse.
The story behind that allocation, however, does not bode well for several reasons.
First, this year could have mimicked 2009, when the initial allocation was just 25 percent Class 1 (followed by an unprecedented 21 allocation changes) due to a potential call on Friant water by the Exchange Contractors. That potential call on Friant resulted from the bureau’s uncertainty regarding its ability to deliver the exchange contractors’ water from the delta, and demonstrated an unprecedented “takeover” of early season Friant allocation decisions by the Bureau of Reclamation’s regional office in Sacramento.
Second, on the bright side, useable storage behind Hidden Dam is excellent this year, totaling nearly 40,000 acre feet, higher than it’s been on this date for several years. That is thanks in large part to the Madera Irrigation District’s conserving and carrying over nearly 13,000 acre feet of conserved water from last year. Unfortunately the district cannot expect to have carryover water available every year.
Third, this year’s San Joaquin River Restoration Program interim flows currently amount to (only) about 215,000 acre feet, assuming a fairly dry hydrology for the balance of the season and (only) about 250,000 acre feet with normal precipitation. Obviously both cases are far greater than 2009’s acre feet. Keep in mind also that full restoration flows, scheduled to commence in 2014, would total about 350,000 acre feet under current hydrologic conditions with even greater flows with wetter hydrology.
And fourth, this year’s precipitation could have ended after January, which would have yielded a much lower allocation, somewhere around 60 to 70 percent Class 1.
In short, it’s apparent several bullets have been dodged in 2010.
But there’s much more to the story. To begin with, the Central Valley Project Friant unit could historically have expected allocations to improve markedly between the initial February allocation and late spring as rainfall and snowpack numbers improved. Today, however, as snowpack and runoff forecasts improve, so do the River Restoration flows — so much that irrigators’ allocations increase little unless the year ends up being quite wet.
The year 2010 is a case in point. The Bureau of Reclamation’s initial 100 percent Class 1, 0.0 percent Class 2 allocation assumes the balance of the rainy season will be relatively dry. But even assuming average rainfall through the spring, the Class 2 allocation only increases to about 5 percent to 10 percent, far below what would have historically yielded about 15 to 20 percent or higher Class 2 supplies. For Madera Irrigation District water users, that 10 percent — 15 percent allocation reduction — would mean a water season 2-4 weeks shorter than it otherwise would have been.
As disturbing as that is, 2010 saw the (yet again) unprecedented involvement of even higher levels of USBR into the Friant operations decision-making process. This year the final decisions were reportedly being made by Department of Interior Secretary Ken Salazar in Washington, D.C. — with input and oversight from Congressional representatives, some seeking to shore up Westside delta export water supplies using San Joaquin River Restoration flows.
At the time of this writing, the “debate” as to whether and how SJRR flows could, should and even whether or not the water can legally be used to improve CVP delta export supplies are ongoing. And the Friant Water Authority and MID are heavily involved in this matter as are politicians the likes of Congressman George Miller, the coauthor of the Central Valley Project Improvement Act, who never saw a water project, especially the CVP, that he didn’t hate.
There are a few simple, but sad, truths that should be obvious. MID growers should expect that:
* Parties and politics outside of the Friant service area are attempting to exert greater influence and control over Friant allocations and operations,
* Friant water supplies have always been but are now increasingly “wedded at the hip” to and reliant on what does or doesn’t happen in the delta,
* The River Restoration impacts are only this year starting to significantly impact District water supplies,
* District water allocations will, on average, be lower and less predictable than they have been historically,
* District water seasons will be shorter in all but the wettest 10 percent of years, i.e. 2005 and 2006 type years,
* The District’s water delivery system efficiency will be more important than ever,
* Groundwater will be a greater part of grower’s total water supplies making good well and pump maintenance more important than in the past,
* Farm water budgeting using both groundwater and surface water supplies will be increasingly important, and
* Water banking and active groundwater recharge during wet years will be more important than ever before to help shore up dry year supplies and reduce increased groundwater overdraft.
A logical question is what can be done about this situation. During the Madera County Farm Bureau’s recent Water Forum key note speaker Judge Oliver Wanger summed it up pretty well. Judge Wanger accurately stated the solution is not to be found in the courts as judges can only interpret the law. For real change to occur the laws must be changed and that can only occur through the people we elect to represent us at both state and federal levels.
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Lance W. Johnson is general manager of Madera Irrigation District.
