A look at 40 years from now (March 10)
By Chuck Doud
The Madera Tribune
A recent story in the San Francisco Chronicle tells of Bay Area people who are commiting “strategic” defaults. These folks just quit making their house payments when the amount of their mortgages exceeds the appraised values of their houses.
They don’t want to keep paying, the story says, for a property that for a long time, if ever, won’t be as valuable as the prices they paid.
They would rather make payments on credit card bills and make car payments. That is even though the credit card bills are often for things like lunches that stopped having value the moment they were eaten; and we all know that cars depreciate much faster than real estate.
But along comes Joel Kotkin with some observations that may make these strategic defaulters kick themselves a few years down the line. Kotkin is the author of a book, “The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050.”
He observes that unlike Europe and Japan, and even China, the United States continues to grow at a rate which will assure the country will have a population of 400 million by mid-century.
That will mean, among other things, a tremendous demand for housing. In fact, we are likely to see that demand manifest itself before too many months go by.
Kotkin also says the population growth will emerge not in the big, long-overdeveloped and overpriced cities, but in places where land is still relatively cheap and families, especially young families, can afford places to live.
California is a microcosm of the nation. It has big cities which are expensive and basically full, but it also has wide-open spaces where residents can be accommodated.
The Central Valley is typical of a place where people can come to live. Naturally, they will bring some problems, but they also will bring opportunities, and it will be sooner than 2050.
